Roman Bilousov: High demand for hydrocarbons will remain until 2050

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the peak consumption of the world's three main types of fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – to be reached by 2030. Roman Bilousov from Evenor Energy SA talks about the organization's annual World Energy Outlook 2023 (WEO-2023).

All three scenarios considered by the agency, including the so-called Stated Policies Scenario, which takes into account only the measures already implemented in energy, industry and climate policy, foresee the achievement of maximum consumption volumes in these terms. Two other scenarios – Announced Pledges Scenario and Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (scenario of zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050) envisage a more active implementation of the green agenda in the world.

For the first time, IEA analysts forecast that the peak consumption of all three types of fossil fuels is expected by 2030. Previously, the agency planned it for different years, including after 2030. Also, the agency changed its forecasts for the demand for fossil fuels downwards compared to last year review of WEO-2022. The IEA explains this as a change in the policy of the governments of many countries around the world, a downward revision of economic forecasts and the continuation of the consequences of the global energy crisis in 2022.

The IEA even suggests that the peak of coal consumption may be reached in the current year and will amount to 5.8 billion tons (the Stated Policies Scenario is considered). By 2030, the demand for coal will then decrease by 14% to 5 billion tons, and by 2050 – by 40% to 3.5 billion tons.

The peak demand for gas, according to IEA forecasts, can be reached in 2028-2030. and will amount to 4.3 trillion cubic meters. m against 4.16 trillion. cube. m in 2022. Already now, according to IEA estimates, peak demand for gas for power plants and space heating has been reached. By 2050, the demand for gas will decrease to 4.17 trillion cubic meters. m, predicted by the IEA.

The golden age of gas (a term first used by the IEA in 2011) is coming to an end, the agency's experts assure. Since 2011, global gas consumption has grown on average by almost 2% per year. But starting in 2023, growth will slow to 0.4% per year, and this pace will continue until 2030.

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